Distribution of residual autocorrelations for multiplicative seasonal ARMA models with uncorrelated but nonindependent error terms

In this paper, we consider portmanteau tests for testing the adequacy of multiplicative seasonal autoregressive moving‐average models under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily independent. We relax the standard independence assumption on the error terms in order to extend the range of applications of the seasonal autoregressive moving‐average models. We study the asymptotic distributions of residual and normalized residual empirical autocovariances and autocorrelations under weak assumptions on noise. We establish the asymptotic behavior of the proposed statistics. A set of Monte Carlo experiments and an application to monthly mean total sunspot number are presented.     

The function-specific microfoundations of dynamic capabilities in cross-border mergers and acquisitions

In mergers and acquisitions, the acquiring firm must combine two firms’ resources and capabilities so that the outcome yields value. In individual firms, the marketing & sales, and R&D functions have typically developed intertwined and complex relationships over time. These multifaceted dependencies may obscure the integration of the firms and their functions. In order to reveal to what extent cross-functional relationships determine the success or failure of an acquisitions, we have made one of the first attempts to study merging firms’ function-specific capabilities, underlying microfoundations, and their cross-functional relationships during the integration process—instead of focusing on acquisition capabilities as such. We use longitudinal data from two cross-border acquisitions between US and Finnish SMEs. Our results indicate that major differences between merging firms’ cross-functional microfoundations—that is, their structures, processes, routines, and skills—might either enforce or erode the seemingly promising synergies at the product and market levels, depending on managerial awareness of their nature.     

The rise of IT services clusters in India: A case of growth by replication

The Indian IT services sector has grown from small beginnings at the bottom of value creation to a major player in the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry. It commands a 55% share in the global market for IT services. India's IT sector value proposition in terms of low cost with large supply of high quality talent is compelling. As a result, India has become the premier choice not only for outsourcing IT services by the developed-world's multinational corporations (MNCs) but also for locating their own Global In-house Centers (GICs), which simultaneously compete and partner with local firms. This gave rise to six additional clusters beyond the earliest, largest and robust cluster, Bangalore. The paper provides a review of relevant literature; develops a conceptual framework for evaluation of clusters; and presents data and analysis with respect to relative size, growth, specialization, MNC presence and connectivity to local firms through expatriates and returning Indians, ,innovation; and discusses adequacy of ICT infrastructure for future growth. Although there are clear signs that the Indian IT sector has been moving towards a regime of providing high-end value added services, the sector's value proposition – lower cost combined with a large supply of high quality talent – remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple export clusters. Thus the sector's growth appears to be a case of growth by replication rather than innovation. The paper concludes that the Indian IT sector's value proposition in terms of lower cost combined with large supply of high quality talent remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple IT services export clusters. While the old adage, “people follow jobs” still holds for large part of the labor force, there is little doubt that the sprawling IT services clusters in India - with more to come from Tier II and Tier III cities – indicate, in fact, that “jobs follow talent." Both local firms and the MNCs, through their GICs, are pushing the boundaries of location farther and farther to continue to leverage cost advantage and available pools of talent.     

Making the next move: When does the newness of experience matter in overseas sequential entries of multinational companies?

Traditional internationalization models suggest multinational companies (MNCs) can exploit their accumulative experience to facilitate their sequential entries. However, experience may depreciate over time. Thus, obtaining benefits from prior experience for MNCs is based on two critical premises, i.e., interpreting and applying experience correctly. We argue that there is a need to study the newness dimension of experiential learning. In doing so, we aim to explore to what extent the newness of experience matters in overseas sequential entries for MNCs. Moreover, we expect that the benefits from recent experience in guiding sequential entries are contingent on the extent of context similarity between the most recent entry location and sequential entry location and the outcome expectancy of focal entry. With a sample of 112 Chinese listed firms and 410 observations during the period of 2000–2012, we find that else being equal, the newness of experience of MNCs is positively associated with sequential entry and such a relationship is positively moderated both by context similarity in institutional environment and the outcome expectancy of the focal entry. We also compare the effects of the newness of different types of experience and find that the newness of the most recent experience has a larger influence on sequential entry than location-specific experience and general experience.     

中共六届四中全会的教训与启示

六届四中全会上,共产国际远东局米夫按照苏联方面的意愿,撤掉了李立三和瞿秋白,将自己所欣赏的但又无充分领导能力的留苏学生王明、博古等人扶上了领导岗位,压制党内反对派,给我们党带来了巨大的危害。文章通过这一反例强调了独立自主在党的建设上的重要性。     

广西中期工业化纵深发展的战略思考

2011年,广西经济总量突破万亿,进入中期工业化阶段。接下来广西应该走怎样的工业化道路,是需要认真思考的问题。文章通过构建TCI指数,指出广西目前的重型化工业道路是一条不能实现经济可持续发展的道路。广西的工业发展需要走一条最优工业化道路,即按照广西的要素禀赋结构,选择最优工业技术水平,使企业具有自生能力,以最快的速度实现资本积累、技术进步和产业升级。     

UGC的表现形式对网络营销效果的影响研究——以微博为例

随着Web2.0的兴起,用户创作内容（UGC）的概念应运而生,迅速发展并逐渐成为供应商组织生产、商家营销宣传以及消费者购买产品的利器.本论文梳理了UGC相关研究的分类和趋势,并选择微博作为平台,采用情景实验法,探究UGC的表现形式（文本、图片、音视频）对网络营销效果的影响,在此基础上为企业进行更大范围的社会化媒体营销（如博客、SNS社区等）提供策略性建议与营销思路,有效提升UGC互动的效用,在理论和实际应用上都有着显著意义.     

创始股东保护问题研究——国美股权与控制权之争对中国公司治理的启示

国美虽在英属维尔京群岛注册，在香港交易及结算所有限公司上市，但仍不失为一家典型的中国式家族企业。国关事件展示了一个失衡的公司治理架构，即管理层可在两权分离的立法模式下实现内部人控制，风险投资人可通过议定投资协议来约束管理层，但创始股东则因受制于一股一权的强制性规范而容易失去对公司的控制权。为维护其创业诉求，建议创始股东除传统控股，还应特别设计公司章程来预留特定董事席位，并约定优先股等保护条款。     

四川省重点生态功能区有机农业生产效率研究——基于三阶段DEA模型的实证分析

[目的]有机农业为我国农业绿色发展起到良好的带动作用,但我国有机农业发展中,西部贫困地区较为滞后。针对西部贫困地区有机农业生产效率进行定量分析,揭示影响有机农业生产效率的主要因素,旨在提高该地区有机农业生产效率,丰富区域视角下的有机农业生产研究。[方法]采用三阶段DEA模型对2014年四川省重点生态功能区有机农业生产效率进行量化分析,识别环境变量对有机农业生产效率的影响。[结果]环境因素和随机误差对四川省重点生态功能区有机农业生产效率产生了显著的影响。环境因素中,农民人均纯收入的增加有利于促使农机、耕地等资源的有效利用,但同时也导致化肥投入冗余增加;城镇化率的提高会降低耕地、劳动力、化肥、农药等使用效率,从而对有机农业生产效率产生不利影响;财政支出占GDP比重的增加有利于提高农机使用效率,但同时也导致化肥和农药投入冗余增加;粮食播种面积占耕地面积比重对有机农业生产效率产生了不利影响。剔除环境因素和随机误差的影响后,四川省重点生态功能区各县平均技术效率和规模效率有所下降,纯技术效率则略有提升。基于纯技术效率和规模效率,四川省重点生态功能区各县有机农业生产效率可分为"双高型""高低型""低高型"和"双低型"等4种类型。[结论]三阶段DEA模型有效剔除了环境因素和随机误差对有机农业生产效率的影响,估计的效率值更真实地反映了四川省重点生态功能区有机农业生产效率水平。针对四川省重点生态功能区各县有机农业生产效率的不同特征,应结合地方实际,通过扩大要素投入规模或改进要素配置效率和使用效率,提高有机农业生产效率。     

黑龙江省上市公司盈余管理研究

以黑龙江省23家A股上市公司共138个子公司为样本,选取2006-2011年的数据对应急盈余管理和真实盈余管理所进行的分析结果表明,黑龙江省上市公司普遍存在,各公司真实盈余管理水平相差较大;有一半以上的公司倾向于采取应计盈余管理进行正向操控,而采用真实营盈余管理进行负向操控;应计盈余管理和真实盈余管理的变化总体呈相反趋势;各行业、地区的盈余管理相差较大。在今后的研究中,应加强对公司盈余管理的遏制,从而促进黑龙江省经济的健康发展。